Domestic wood pulp mainly depends on imports, especially the coniferous wood pulp traded on disk, and almost all delivery products come from overseas. Since the low price of 4692 yuan / ton was given at the end of October last year, the pulp price has made rapid progress and the trend shape is good. The main reason why pulp can get out of this trend is that overseas commodities priced in US dollars are greatly affected by inflation. The rising energy cost (mainly affecting the paper price), the soaring cost of wood chips and sea freight all affect the pulp price from bottom to top or from top to bottom; On the supply side, the story of supply side disturbance in Canada and Finland in the early stage has not ended. The recent situation in Russia and Ukraine has affected the port logistics in some regions of the Black Sea, and some countries have successively issued economic sanctions against Russia, which has led to the market's concern that the export of Russian needles will be blocked in the future, and there will be a problem in the logistics chain or payment chain, which will have an impact on the short-term domestic pulp supply. In addition, there were too many maintenance of overseas pulp mills in the second quarter, and the tightening of supply still supported the disk.
For the future, we still divide it into short-term and medium and long-term. In the short term (especially in the next 1-2 months), we believe that the two major early drivers of pulp, input inflation and supply problems will continue to ferment, which will form a strong support and impetus to the disk. In the medium and long term, the risk point of going long lies in the mitigation of transportation capacity and the concentration of goods to the port.
Since the end of last year, the price of pulp has begun to rise. By the beginning of this year, it has increased by 20% per ton. Now it is still rising, which has a great impact on our products adult / baby diapers and sanitary
Napkins. I hope the price of raw materials will return to normal as soon as possible.
